IMF predicts Cambodia will be fastest growing ASEAN economy by 2025

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Cambodia will be the fastest growing economy in ASEAN by 2025, and even the third-fastest growing economy in ASEAN in 2021.

The positive outlook for the Kingdom comes on the back of recent World Bank predictions for the growth forecast of the Cambodian economy in 2020 to be -2.0 per cent (as recently as September).

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) revised its 2020 growth forecast for Cambodia to -4 per cent from -5.5 per cent. The ADB upped its revision saying Cambodia had “improved agricultural performance and an increase in volume in non-garment manufacturing exports such as bicycles and electronics.”

A Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) spokesman, Meas Soksensan, said the Cambodian government predicts the country’ economic growth will contract just 1.9 per cent in 2020. He added, “The global financial institutions always adjust the prediction according to the situation but the government’s official figure currently remains at minus 1.9 per cent but we may adjust it at the end of the year.”

ASEAN 2020 Economies (according to IMF World Economic Outlook)

In the October 2020 IMF World Economic Outlook, the report said: “Cambodia’s economy is forecast to shrink 2.8 per cent this year (2020)”. Myanmar and Vietnam are still both expected to see positive growth in 2020.

  • Myanmar: 1.5 per cent growth
  • Vietnam: 1.6 per cent growth
  • Indonesia: 1.5 per cent contraction
  • Cambodia: 2.8 per cent contraction
  • Malaysia: 6.0 per cent contraction
  • Singapore: 6.0 per cent contraction
  • Thailand: 7.1 per cent contraction
  • Philippines: 8.3 per cent contraction

2025 mid-term projections

However, the IMF’s mid-term projections for 2025 indicate Cambodia will have a growth forecast of 6.9 per cent, making the country the region’s fastest-growing economy.

  • Cambodia: 6.9 per cent growth
  • Vietnam: 6.6 per cent growth
  • Philippines: 6.5 per cent growth
  • Myanmar: 6.5 per cent growth
  • Laos: 6.1 per cent growth
  • Indonesia: 5.1 per cent growth
  • Malaysia: 5.0 per cent growth
  • Thailand: 3.7 per cent growth
  • Singapore: 2.5 per cent growth
  • Brunei: 1.8 per cent growth

Cambodia’s Projected GDP 2020-2025

You can see a selection of the predicted economic data sets for every year from 2018 until 2025 for Cambodia here.

  • Cambodia GDP 2020: 2.8 per cent contraction
  • Cambodia GDP 2021: 6.75 per cent growth
  • Cambodia GDP 2022: 7.3 per cent growth
  • Cambodia GDP 2023: 7.3 per cent growth
  • Cambodia GDP 2024: 7.3 per cent growth
  • Cambodia GDP 2025: 6.9 per cent growth

The database also suggests Cambodia will increase its population from 16.7 million in 2020 to 18 million by 2025.

What is the World Economic Outlook (WEO)?

The WEO is released twice a year, April and September/October.

According to the IMF, “the World Economic Outlook (WEO) database contains selected macroeconomic data series from the statistical appendix of the World Economic Outlook report, which presents the IMF staff’s analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups and in many individual countries.”

Read more about Banking & Finance in Cambodia here.

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